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A Replay of 2000?


By John Martin - Posted on 02 July 2012

Obama and Romney have been deadlocked for months in the national polls, but the President's chances of re-election have increased of late because of the significant beating Mitt is being given in a number of swing states.

Quinnipiac University polling last week in the three big classic swing states show the president with narrow but identifiable leads. He’s up four points in Florida, seven in Ohio, and six in Pennsylvania.
 
Among the things that those states have in common is that voters there have seen an avalanche of early advertising focused on questioning Romney’s business record.
The Super PAC supporting Obama’s reelection effort has already dumped $10 million into Bain-related ads, in a series of ads that have run in five major battleground states since the middle of May.
 
“If Romney wins, the middle class loses,” one ad from Priorities USA Action declares.
The Obama campaign has picked up the same theme in paid advertising. Campaign officials say they’ve spent only about $200,000 on Bain ads so far, but that number will grow fast, and the campaign’s attempts to push reports of Bain companies sending work overseas show that aides recognize the potency of these lines of attack.
 
Last week’s Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found a third of those polled in battleground states said they think more negatively about Romney as a result of hearing about his business experience. Those saying the opposite were outnumbered nearly 2-1, despite the fact that his time at Bain is perhaps his most salient selling point to voters.
 
With Romney having a slight financial advantage, this is especially good news for the President. So long as things remain close nationally he can continue to focus on these few key battleground states, and rely on this winning anti-Mitt message. The downside is the President might pull off his reelection with a razor thin win, or even lose the popular vote. If the Republicans regain the Senate and hold on to the house, this could mean a rough second term for Obama.
Team Obama is smart to show these ads early & often in the swing states. Kerry faced an early "defining" of him as out of touch and too elite and he was never able to escape those perceptions. Nate Silver recently increased Obama's chance of winning to 67% and he is pretty respected & accurate in his predictions. As much as I'd like Obama to start showing healthier leads as we approach the election, closer numbers might be better to inspire more turn-out (don't want to see overconfidence by voters who support him.) Every vote counts, especially with these suppression efforts!

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