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Primary Night Aftermath
Is it just me or is the GOP in disarray or heading there? Did they finally throw away all values and integrity?
1. Karl Rove goes off on crazy girl O'Donnell yesterday, factually citing many examples of just how nuts she is, what a liar she is, and he is forced to apologize and walk that back today. Almighty Rush reigns again. We've got people like Romney and the RNC endorsing McDonnell, a candidate who feels women should not be serving in the military and are probably a distraction to male soldiers, and also told Bill Maher she is so against dishonesty she would even tell Hitler the truth if she were hiding Jews in her house. We've got major figures endorsing Paladino-Mr. "get the government out of the way" who wants to use his power as governor to take away Park 51's right to build and also feels the government should interfere with a woman's right to choose even after she'd been raped or a victim of incest (yep-smaller government alright!)
There is a clip of O'Donnell from CSPAN in 1995, on the subject of women in the military. O'Donnell said:
By integrating women into, particularly, military institutes, it cripples the readiness of our defense. Schools like The Citadel training young men to confidently lead other young men into a battlefield where one of them will die. And when you have women in that situation, it just creates a whole new set of dynamics which are distracting to training these men to kill or be killed.
2. Murkowski refuses to endorse Republican Tea Party candidate Miller who beat her and she may run as a write in candidate. Castle refuses to endorse McDonnell.
3. A GOP Vice-Chair from Maine has had enough of this Tea Party madness and has endorsed the Democrat. I'm sure this scene is not uncommon across the nation in smaller, less known pcokets, especially in the "blue" moderate states.
I have news for the GOP. When you endorse someone, that means you support what they believe. If they endorse Paladino, they are transferring his baggage and racism to the party. When they endorse O'Donnell, they'd better be prepared to explain why they would support a woman who survived for years on campaign donations, lied about her college degree, foreclosed on her home recently, and holds views like "women should not be in the military" and "thou shalt not lie even to Hitler (even if I lied about many other things like my taxes!)"
Wasn't sure where to put this, but a small glimmer of hope in some new polling. After being behind by 10 points in a generic match-up with Republicans not too long ago, 2 new polls (Reuters & Gallup) show Democrats ahead by 1.
I know it means nothing in terms of all those close races, but I wonder if it is a result of someone like O'Donnell being elected recently and people realizing she is now the face of the party. Maybe they are finally getting scared of what a GOP victory would look like and the consequences.
Kelly, I am not sure what the final reason will be, but I feel certain it will not be the blood bath the R's are predicting. I am going to attach the link, for the political astrologer as I think you are one of the people that found this interesting. I don't want to put it up as a thread on it's own. What she says pretty much echos what you are saying. She says that they have unleashed a monster and the GOP will not catch on until it is much too late.
http://starlightnews.com/wordpress/
I still have a running bet with a friend of mine that the D's will retain both houses of congress...it might be close, because we will loose seats, but I still believe we will.
"Peace Cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding."
Albert Einstein
Wow! This is a great piece!! I suggest everyone read it, whether or not you're "into astrology". The editorial content of this piece is phenomenal!!
Thanks for posting this Liz!!!
I felt the same way reading it! She is phenominal...I can't tell you how many times during the primaries and election that her blog kept me calm in the midst of all the different dramas. She would post what she saw in each of their charts, Obama/Hillary at first and then all four of them...Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin. She has since written a few times about Sarah Palin and she sees her continuing to rise in popularity and power right up until August of 2012. I posted that one on here on it's own thread. She had said and had continued to say that Nov 09' until Aug 10' was going to be the toughest time in President Obama's term(s)...She has progressed his chart all the way out to 2016 and sees him winning reelection as well as leaving office a very poplular president. She is able to make predictions on not only people but countries based on their Birth time. She isn't able to predict what will happen, but based on astrological positions, she can determine where person or a place will be in terms of mood and situation. As an example, she predicted the Gulf coast oil spill...but how she did was she saw a tremendous amount of sadness and grief in a speicific area of the country. She said before it happened that she didn't know what would be the cause it; natural disaster or terrorist attack but she was saw it none the less. I feel she has been very accurate and I follow her post contiunously. She post about every 10 days. She is very good about responding to specific questions. I will be happy to post the link for the threads here if you guys want me to...I just wasn't sure, because the last few times I did, it got very little comment. I am so glad you guys checked it out! I have also posted some threads on here from links people posted on her site.
"Peace Cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding."
Albert Einstein
Now Zogby also has a poll showing Dem's up by 1 over Republicans. The outlier is a Rasmussen Poll showing the Republicans up by 10. But it is Rasmussen. Hmmm-just a positive blip this week or a pattern that might be encouraing to Democrats?
Perhaps this strategy of calling out the Republicans on wanting to privatize Social Security might help their chances. Most sane GOPers will distance themselves from the Club for Growth excitement for the idea, but then they face the wrath of Club for Growth and their powerful crowd of voters...
This is the fight Democrats want to have. Yesterday, the influential Club for Growth -- a conservative advocacy group formerly led by Pat Toomey, the current Republican candidate for Senate in Pennsylvania -- publicly argued for privatizing Social Security. It was actually more blatant than that. The organization titled their pitch: "Privatize Social Security? Hell Yeah!"
"Most Republicans are running away from the Social Security issue," the post read. "They've probably been told by establishment handlers to never defend "privatization" or personal accounts. Baloney.... Candidates for Congress should adopt that message and support it loudly."
Democrats swiftly reacted, in the hope of wedging those very Republican candidates from the Club for Growth -- or, better yet, exposing those Republicans who agree with the group.
"Today Jesse Kelly's backers in Washington announced a 'hell yeah' approach to privatizing Social Security, effectively signing over Arizona seniors' retirement benefits to Wall Street," said Ryan Rudominer, Spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in a release to reporters in Kelly's district. "With Arizona families losing their savings on Wall Street and seniors struggling to make ends meet, the last thing they need is Jesse Kelly subjecting their guaranteed Social Security benefits to the whims of Wall Street."
Many Republicans will run away from the Club for Growth on this issue. Yesterday, Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA) told TPM unequivocally that he disagrees with the group in this instance. But the Club is known for turning up the heat on moderate Republicans, and Dems are hopeful that their privatization push will make those members trip over themselves.
It is shocking to me that anybody would still be pushing this idea after what we saw happen to wallstreet?! I thought that was one thing that came out of the wallstreet crash was the killing of that idea? Honestly, does anyone else feel like the country is literally living in two different realities??
"Peace Cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding."
Albert Einstein
I'm intrigued by the fact that there are so many close races, and there have been so many surprises in the primaries (polling showed Lazio neck and neck with Paladino but Paladino beat him big, and even polling in some Democratic races was way off-so maybe we can't trust the polls?) so the 2010 mid-terms could go either way. Sure, the Dem's could get their butts kicked and don't seem to be doing much to fire up the base, but maybe more Democrats will show up that most predict. My phone calls for OFA to first time voters has been surprising in how many insist they will vote and even bring friends. Maybe it's all talk, especially from the young ones who usually don't show up. I didn't realize turn-out for mid-terms is usually only about 40% (shame on Americans for blowing off this fundamental right!) so what if Dem's get 50% out this time? This was an interesting read on some myths about midterm elections that i thought I'd share.
4. Mind the gap
One more quick note--quite a few bloggers are citing the Daily Kos poll showing that only 54% of self-identified Democrats who are registered to vote indicate that they are likely to vote in 2010. While that sounds pretty bad, the truth is that less than 40% of all voters have turned out in every midterm election since 1974. If 54% of self-identified Democrats who are registered to vote actually turned out in 2010, then Democrats would end up with about 64 seats in the Senate and close to 300 in the House. A 54% turnout rate among Democrats who are registered to vote would be f-ing enormous for a midterm election, and as such is a terrible data point to use when arguing that the Democratic base is depressed. What matters in the Daily Kos poll is the gap between Democrats and Republicans, not the overall numbers.
And some polling analysis from The Hill.
Democrats might be touting new numbers that show their party leading on the generic congressional ballot, but pollsters point out that Republicans still lead in voter enthusiasm and that could boost GOP turnout in November.
A Gallup poll out Monday showed Democrats leading Republicans in a head-to-head congressional match-up. Even though the lead was only one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, Democrats proclaimed the result as good news. It is the second week of the last three in which Gallup has found the two parties virtually tied in the generic ballot.
But the Gallup poll also found that Republicans “remain significantly more likely than Democrats to say they are ‘very’ enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterm elections,” with 47 percent of Republicans very enthusiastic about voting compared with 28 percent of Democrats.
Gallup notes in its analysis: “Given this continuing enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, even a tie in registered voters' preferences will almost certainly mean the Republicans will garner the most votes on Election Day.”
We'll have to return to all the predicting on Nov. 3rd to see who was close or way off. I guess my point is that everything has been so unpredictable lately so maybe even the experts have no clue!
Here is the next post from Nancy's astrology blog...
Suzi and Kelly, thought you two might like this one as well...
http://starlightnews.com/wordpress/
"Peace Cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding."
Albert Einstein
Thanks, lizbethie. Now I'm hooked.
From Real Clear Politics. Looks like Conway is really closing the gap with Rand Paul. Conway is only down by 2 in the latest poll (CNN recently had them tied.) I thought Paul would soar to victory once he realized it would benefit him to keep his mouth shut, especially on matters of Civil Rights legislation. Maybe Conway is just connecting better to voters.
Jack Conway, Kentucky's Democratic Attorney General, has pulled within two points of Republican Rand Paul in the Kentucky Senate race, according to the latest poll from SurveyUSA.
Paul leads Conway 49 percent to 47 percent in the new poll, a 13-point turnaround since the last SurveyUSA poll released at the beginning of the month. He leads by 5.8 percent in the RCP Average. The SurveyUSA poll, which was conducted for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS 11, is the second poll in the last month to show the race within the margin of error. A CNN/Time poll taken September 2nd through 7th showed the candidates tied. However, Paul led by 15 points in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted September 7th.
Paul, armed with Tea Party backing, easily won the Republican primary over establishment pick Trey Grayson. Still, in the general election he has come under scrutiny for taking issue with aspects of the Civil Rights Act and saying the drug problem in eastern Kentucky is "not a pressing issue." As a result, he has become a target of the national Democratic Party, which has attempted to tag Tea Party-backed candidates as extremists.
The gender divide on display in other races across the country is stark in Kentucky. While Paul earns the support of 59 percent of male voters, 55 percent of female voters support Conway. Paul has done a slightly better job of consolidating support among his Republican base. Eighty-three percent of Republicans support Paul while 72 percent of Democrats support Conway. The Democrat holds a 50-45 advantage among independent voters, however.
Kelly, did you read Nancy's new piece? Finally a glimmer of hope! Don't miss it. I made that dinner bet with my friend that Dem's would retain both houses of congress and I'm not making reservations yet, but I am picking out the wine for my eggplant parm...
(you can just click the link above if you don't have it saved for yourself)
"Peace Cannot be kept by force. It can only be achieved by understanding."
Albert Einstein
Murkowski may have a fighting chance against Miller (as a write-in candidate) in Alaska, according to a new poll. Palin will not be pleased.
The new CNN/Time poll of the Alaska Senate race shows that Tea Partier Joe Miller, the surprise Republican nominee, is still in the lead in this unusual election -- but that incumbent Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running a write-in campaign after she lost the primary, does have a fighting chance of catching him.
The numbers: Miller 38%, Murkowski 36%, and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams 22%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. There is no prior CNN/Time poll of this race for direct comparison.
"... I am just hoping that we will see Tea Party candidates go down so as to deflate the movement a little and send a message to the GOP that they need to be working hard to nominate moderates. ..."
Oh, Kelly! Please! While I share your hope, what will probably happen is the Tea Party candidates will congratulate themselves for "coming so far in so short a time". They will say that they have sent a message to the "political insiders" that they are the future of the G.O.P. or maybe go as far as saying they ARE the future of this country and had better be taken seriously. From what I can see, the current G.O.P. has no plan to bring both sides together. They simply want to return to power over the executive and legislative branch of government and, unless ALL of the Tea Party candidate are absolutely trounced (like, say, by a 3-to-1 margin), they will be back as a major force in the party, maybe even stronger than they are now.
"Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug." -- Mark Knopfler
"... but I have to hang on to hope."
:-) God bless you, Kelly! God bless you!
"Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug." -- Mark Knopfler
From Politico. Democratic loss "hurricane" downgraded from a category 5 to a category 4. Looks like some of the pundits may be trying to walk back predictions of total slaughter from the GOP.
Once-despondent Democrats now believe that they may be able to avert a total midterm wipeout, as a series of important states now appears to be trending in their direction or growing more competitive.
The bad news: In a sign of how hostile the election environment remains for the party, the cautious optimism is largely due to the view that the impending political hurricane could be downgraded from category 5 to category 4.
One month out from Election Day, strategists in both parties still think that Republicans will make major gains. They don’t believe the underlying factors driving the race – the sour economy and unpopularity of President Obama’s policies – can be reversed. But there are some hopeful signs, and Democrats are seizing on them.
Democratic-held Senate seats in Washington, California and Illinois that party strategists once fretted about appear to be returning to blue state form – and, along with Delaware, the result may be to ultimately ensure that Republicans don’t seize control of the 10 seats necessary to win back the Senate.
In open seat governors’ races in such mega-states as California and New York, recent developments have benefited Democrats. And incumbent Democratic governors in Ohio and Illinois, both saddled with stunningly low approval ratings, somehow remain close in the polls—giving the party hope that they’ll be able to win in some statehouse races that previously seemed in jeopardy.
The improving gubernatorial outlook is especially important because of what it means for the most hard-fought battle this year: the House.
If Democrats can elect governors in high-population states or at least keep it close—as it also appears now in Texas and Florida—it will be more difficult for down-ballot Republicans to win.
“It obviously is a tough election for us, but the doomsday stories have always been exaggerations,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen said in an interview with POLITICO Sunday.
Also from Politico. Check out this fundraising for Democrats! You can't discount the meaning of this huge haul. It should tell us the enthusiasm gap is shrinking (or Progressives are willing to hold their noses in support, knowing the consequences of the other side taking over) and the base is starting to come together as the election nears.
SURGE IS WORKING – THE $16 MILLION DEMS – The DNC will report a massive September fundraising haul, taking in over $16 million in its best month of the 2010 campaign. That’s about $3 million more than the committee’s next-best monthly take, of $13.3 million in March. More than 80 percent of the September total came from “low-dollar donors online and in the mail,” a Democratic official said, explaining: “We’ve found that our supporters are now focused on the election, are responding to the president’s message laying out the choice and understand the stakes.” Much of that money is going straight into the field: The DNC donated $4.9 million to the DCCC and DSCC, and to state Democratic parties, last month alone.