35,000 Cheer on the President in Ohio

Awesome photos, Misty! Thanks! If Bush ever drew crowds like that right before an election, the media would be telling us he was king of the world. Not so much with President Obama. The doom and gloom picture is the preferred narrative for the media, I suppose.

Well, I am not the only one seeing some glimmers of hope. Here's an opinion piece on why the Democrats will keep the House.

What enthusiasm gap?

Early Democratic Voting EXPLODING in Ohio and IOWA
by lanae
Thu Oct 14, 2010 at 03:48:55 PM PDT

According to this article, the Democrats in Iowa and Ohio are on track to set a record in early voting. This fantasy about the democrats not being enthusiastic is pure HOGWASH!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-...

2010 Early Voting

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2010.html

Early voting has started! Statistics are now reported for Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Virginia, and some counties in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. I am aware that some Florida counties are reporting mail ballot statistics on their webpages, but I am happy to report a helpful statewide campaign has offered to provide vote-by-mail stats soon.

These are very early numbers, and no conclusions may be drawn yet as to what these numbers mean for the 2010 elections. However, there are some tantalizing tidbits.

Someone forgot to tell Democrats that they are not enthusiastic. Early voting in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties in Ohio is on track to set a record for a midterm election. If turnout in 2010 is the same as 2006, over 10% of voters have already cast their ballot.

I spoke with local election officials in these counties to confirm that these numbers are indeed accurate. Election officials in both counties sent an absentee ballot request form to all their registered voters, and as a consequence, they expect upwards of 50% of votes will be cast early in Ohio. Breaking is that now-available Iowa statistics tell a similar story: Democratic registrants are voting early in heavy numbers. Turnout could be higher than normal as a consequence, since early voting typically picks up as the election nears. To see these sorts of numbers so soon in the early voting period is remarkable.

Elsewhere, Republicans are out to an early lead in North Carolina and Democrats holding near even with Republicans in Maine.

More statistics will be posted as they become available. Tips to early voting statistics are most welcome, especially for those posted by local election offices.

Someone also forgot to tell democrats they weren't enthusiastic in IOWA also

119,430 early voters in Iowa are 42% of registered Democrats compared with 29% registered as Republican.

The point of this diary is to show everyone that this so called enthusiasm gap is BULL****! I am in Georgia and I voted last week and the line was out the door. EVERYBODY I ask said they were voting DEMOCRAT so we can't believe this crap about the democrats won't vote. Keep calling, keep knocking on doors and keep believing that we will keep the house and senate.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/14/910441/-Early-...

 

See what I mean about "spin?" The WSJ headline could have read "Democratic Strategy may be working" when you look at the polling results, but instead the inside pollsters decide to offer their opinion that "people are more concerned about the economy than ads from outside groups so this is a losing battle for the president." Hello? Have they seen the results?

TV ads being run by outside groups, mostly in support of Republicans, are both well known and disliked, the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found.

President Barack Obama has made these ads a centerpiece of his political argument, attacking pro-Republican groups for running the ads and suggesting foreign money may be helping to pay the bill.

The new poll found four in 10 voters have seen TV ads produced by outside groups, which are run independently of political parties and candidates. It found 55% think they make a negative contribution to the election, vs. just 11% who see a positive contribution.

But despite the low standing in which voters hold these ads, the Journal’s pollsters were skeptical that Mr. Obama’s line of attack is effective.

Voters care much more about the economy and other critical issues than about TV ads, which are essentially a “process issue,” said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducts the poll with Republican Bill McInturff. “This ends up as a side road or a cul-de-sac and it doesn’t take the Democrats anywhere.”

Mr. McInturff added that while people may not like the ads in theory, they are effective in shaping opinion.

“I think it was a mistake and a waste of time” for Mr. Obama to talk about the issue, he said. “Any day you’re spending talking about who’s sponsoring advertising … is a wasted day.”

But Mr. Hart says the Obama attacks served a useful purpose. “It changed the conversation, moved it from where the Democrats have been totally defensive, into a position where the Republicans and the press had to talk about it,” he said. “But do I see this as a closing argument? No.”

 

Newt looks a little lonely.

I thought this was an interesting op-ed piece from CNN that acknolwedges some movement towards Dem's, especially from "moderates" in these final days and also touches on the RNC debt and GOP in-fighting that may come to a head right after the election. whether or not we see huge GOP gains.

Avlon: Democrats gaining in Senate races

Polls are tightening in races across the nation as candidates make their final push. And while there's no question a Republican tidal wave is on its way, there is some new good news for Democrats in specific races.

From Pennsylvania to Connecticut to West Virginia, Democratic Senate candidates are surging in the late innings. A look at the underlying polls shows that is because self-described centrist voters are swinging to Democrats. In Ohio, a governor's race between incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland and the popular former congressman John Kasich has tightened to a virtual tie because Strickland is beating Kasich 2 to 1 among moderates, according to the CNN/Time/Opinion Research poll.

Usually, independent voters and centrists track together, but this year there is an interesting split -- independents continue to favor Republicans, a trend that has been building for over a year. But in part because of the extremism of high-profile Tea Party-backed candidates such as Christine O'Donnell and Sharron Angle, centrist voters seem to be shifting momentum toward specific Democrats in swing states as Election Day comes closer.

Erickson: Republican feuding may erupt after election

Republicans have a little doubt in the back of their heads this week. They do not believe the polls showing the races tightening. Those results are not really reflected in any of the national media and independent polling, just in university conducted and Democrat oriented polling.

But there is a concern about the vast amount of money being thrown into the races by unions. The AFSCME is pouring massive amounts of money into races. So is the SEIU. So are other unions. Should the GOP take back the House of Representatives, there will be inquiries you can guarantee into union fundraising, involvement in elections, and whether government should make it opt-in instead of opt-out for union dues to go to political activity.

Nonetheless, the union money is deeply worrying because of the ground game potential. Why?

Well there are two related stories out this week. One is that the Republican National Committee, despite raising a significant amount of money in September, is in debt and does not have the resources to adequately fund state get out the vote efforts. The second is that chairman Michael Steele is sending money to Guam. Seriously.

It is only $15,000, but make no mistake in what it actually is: Steele is already campaigning again for RNC chairman. Should the Tea Party movement beat the union effort in 11 days, Michael Steele will do his best to take credit for their work. So will John Cornyn, head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. And the victories they take credit for will be had in spite of them.

That alone may incite more intra-party feuding than any other action the Republican leadership in Washington takes in the next 30 days.

 

KPCC covered this and did some interviews of the attendees.  Unfortunately, of the three  people they put on the air, the attitude was generally more a matter of thrilled to have a chance to see a president of the US than thrilled with the job he has been doing.  Though all three did say or imply that they thought he had a tough job and deserved a great deal of respect.

Did anyone watch the rally in Nevada tonight?  President Obama was inspiring.  (Only someone like Sharon Angle could make me like Reid...and I'm pulling hard for him now)